The Fog Of War And The Law Of Unintended Consequences

I thought of the titular principle last night whilst watching a dreary pseudo-doc on ABC, called Earth 2100.

Naturally, almost everything that could go wrong on the next 91 years is shown to go wrong. But, reality shows that with every prediction, subsequent predictions become cloudier. While we in 2009 worry of global warming, just 50 years ago such was inconceivable. In 50 years the problems that dominate likely will be ones we have no clue of now. And this is true even if we dawdle as a species with our current problems. But the film makes it seem as if nothing can stop our descent into a new dark Ages; although the two hour film ends with a 10 minute 'alternate' paradisical view of 2100. Within the next few decades we will have quantum computers, the ability to fight disease genetically, not just biologically. We will be able to master genetic farming, have colonies in space, and- as with the bad stuff- have other good consequences I cannot foresee.

This real 'reality' of indeterminacy reminded me of the great Errol Morris documentary The Fog Of War, which explains its title as the inability to predict the outcome of war after it begins, despite the best laid plans.

The thing that annoys me the most about such fluff as Earth 2100 is that extremists on the left believe such things with the same ease as Right Wing fanatics believe such nonsense that President Obama is a Manchurian Candidate for Moslems.

Reality is 'always' far more complex than such simpletons realize, which is why the greatest artists and art is never simplistic as Earth 2100.

Here's the whole film- a classic: